Possible scenario
Tariffs Survive Initially
30% Chance
The court may decline to disturb the tariffs at the emergency stage, especially if it wants a fuller factual record on national security and trade findings. This would keep the 50% duties in place for now while preserving a later chance of a merits ruling against the administration.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Tickers
- NUE+0.8%
- F-0.7%
- GMM.USD-0.6%
- -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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