Possible scenario
Negotiated Trade Bargain
20% Chance
The lawsuit could accelerate negotiations between Washington and Ottawa, especially with Canada already seeking USMCA renewal and tariff relief. A negotiated compromise would let Trump preserve a tough trade stance while reducing legal and business uncertainty.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
Tickers
- GMM.USD+1.5%
- F+1.4%
- WFG+1.3%
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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