Possible scenario
Court Curbs Tariffs
35% Chance
The most likely market-moving path is that plaintiffs win at least partial early relief because the Supreme Court already narrowed Trump’s tariff authority in February. A judge may find that the administration’s Section 232 rationale is too broad or procedurally defective, while leaving room for appeal.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
Tickers
- F+1.5%
- GMM.USD+1.4%
- NUE-1.1%
- -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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