Possible scenario
Russian Retaliatory Strikes
25% Chance
The Kremlin links the Moscow airport shutdown to Ukrainian military intelligence and responds with a larger missile-and-drone barrage against Ukrainian infrastructure. This remains within the established escalation ladder, but markets price a modest increase in geopolitical risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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