Possible scenario
Expanded Ukrainian Drone Campaign
20% Chance
Ukraine interprets the diversion of Putin’s landing as evidence that long-range drones can impose political and logistical costs inside Russia. Kyiv’s security services and military intelligence sustain pressure on Moscow-region aviation, airbases, and energy infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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