Possible scenario
Northern War Stalemate
35% Chance
The most likely near-term path is a return to sustained fighting in Tigray and adjacent Amhara and Afar areas without either side achieving a decisive breakthrough. The TPLF can exploit seized airports and local terrain, while Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's ENDF retains drones, artillery, and broader state resources.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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