Possible scenario
Federal Counteroffensive Succeeds
25% Chance
The federal government could rapidly mobilize drones, artillery, and allied regional forces to contain or reverse TPLF gains. This outcome would reduce immediate fears of a wider collapse but would not resolve the underlying insurgency or political fragmentation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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