Possible scenario
Ceasefire Revived
25% Chance
African Union, IGAD, U.S., EU, and Gulf pressure could push both sides back toward a limited ceasefire, especially if neither side can rapidly improve its battlefield position. The 2022 Pretoria framework is damaged but may still serve as the reference point for de-escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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