Possible scenario
November Hold Base
48% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Jefferson's comments reinforce a wait-and-see Fed stance. With Williams and Barr recently emphasizing slow progress toward 2% inflation, markets interpret the remarks as confirmation that the central bank will not rush into a rate cut.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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