Possible scenario
Labor Weakness Returns
15% Chance
A weaker labor market remains a key counterweight to the Fed's inflation focus, especially after Powell's earlier warning that jobs could soften further. If employment data deteriorates, Jefferson's message may be seen as conditional rather than firmly hawkish.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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