Possible scenario
Cuts Shift Later
27% Chance
Jefferson's remarks could accelerate the market's existing reassessment of the 2026 easing path. Because Williams has already suggested inflation may not reach 2% until 2028, investors may move the first expected cut further into 2027.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.