Possible scenario
Proxy Maritime Escalation
15% Chance
Iran avoids an immediate direct strike but encourages allied groups to raise pressure on Israel, U.S. forces, or regional shipping lanes. The escalation is deniable and geographically dispersed, producing higher oil and transport risk without a confirmed Israel-Iran air war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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