Possible scenario
Limited Israeli Strike
25% Chance
The sortie is followed by a narrow Israeli operation against Iranian military infrastructure, likely missile, drone, or air-defense targets rather than a full nuclear strike. Israel attempts to keep the attack below the threshold that would force Tehran into a large direct response.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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