Possible scenario
Deterrent Signaling Holds
45% Chance
The sortie remains a calibrated show of force rather than the opening move of a new strike campaign. Israel signals readiness, Iran raises air defenses, and Washington pushes both sides to avoid a repeat of the 2024 missile exchanges.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.