Possible scenario
Kremlin Retaliates Digitally
25% Chance
Russia-linked operators are likely to adapt after the disruption, shifting to harder-to-police channels and more disposable AI accounts. The response could include new fake local-news brands, hack-and-leak attempts, or claims that U.S. platforms are censoring political speech.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Business Services -0.3%
- Telecommunications -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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