Possible scenario
Taiwan Ambiguity Returns
20% Chance
Reporters use the final summit event to press Trump on whether he would defend Taiwan, reviving the unresolved issue from Xi's earlier questioning. Ambiguous language from either side unsettles investors exposed to Taiwan, semiconductors, and China-linked supply chains.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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