Possible scenario
Israeli Obstruction Freezes Rebuild
27% Chance
Israeli right-wing ministers, especially Bezalel Smotrich, use security approvals, customs controls and permit procedures to slow or block Gaza reconstruction. This scenario is plausible because Israeli officials already signaled resistance to rebuilding that could strengthen Palestinian return claims.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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