Possible scenario
Smooth Institutional Relaunch
42% Chance
Coinbase successfully reintroduces Coinbase Pro as a derivatives-first venue using Deribit infrastructure. Institutional traders respond positively because the CFTC approval reduces uncertainty and Deribit's options liquidity improves Coinbase's product depth.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
Tickers
- COIN+5.5%
- CME-0.9%
- -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.