Possible scenario
Stalemate Persists
38% Chance
Iran and the United States remain locked over sequencing, sanctions relief, and verification of Tehran's seven Hormuz conditions. Washington keeps tightening enforcement while Oman and Qatar try to preserve a negotiating channel, leaving shipping flows constrained but not fully stopped.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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