Possible scenario
Phased Deal Revives
27% Chance
Despite the rejection, intermediaries narrow the dispute to sequencing and oil-revenue access. A limited, phased reopening becomes plausible if the United States offers verifiable sanctions waivers while Iran allows monitored passage.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.7%
- Consumer Services +2.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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