Possible scenario
Maritime Clash Escalates
20% Chance
The rejection feeds a sharper maritime security response by the United States and partners. Iran probes the convoy system with drones, fast boats, mines, or missile threats, raising the risk of a contained but dangerous clash around the strait.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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