Possible scenario
China Tensions Intensify
20% Chance
China views the Greenland initiative as part of a broader US effort to bypass Chinese rare-earth dominance. The result is a sharper strategic minerals contest, with some market stress but still below a systemic geopolitical crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +1.8%
- Technology -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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