Possible scenario
Adoption Faces Pushback
18% Chance
OpenAI's enterprise momentum slows as regulated customers demand stronger guarantees on data residency, auditability, copyright exposure, and model governance. The impact is concentrated in AI software and professional-services implementation, not the broader macro market.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Finance -0.1%
- Healthcare -0.1%
- Business Services -0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Tickers
- MSFT-1.2%
- -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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