Possible scenario
Repeated Incursions
24% Chance
Additional Russian drones or fragments cross Moldovan airspace as strikes continue against Ukrainian targets near the Moldovan border. Chisinau extends emergency measures, temporarily restricts some local air activity, and warns civilians near likely debris zones.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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