Possible scenario
Support Package Expands
25% Chance
Authorities follow the selling limits with a broader stabilization package, potentially including larger Central Huijin purchases, easier broker financing, or guidance for state-owned firms to accelerate buybacks. This would be read as a more credible official put under Chinese equities.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.2%
- Finance +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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