Possible scenario
Consensus Quarter-Point Hike
50% Chance
The most likely path is that Kevin Warsh votes with the Federal Reserve Board for a standard 25 basis point hike, presenting the decision as inflation-driven rather than politically directed. Markets treat the move as broadly expected after the recent inflation data and the Fed's July shift toward price stability.
Initial impacts
- Fed policy rate Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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