Possible scenario
Direct Gulf Crisis
15% Chance
Saudi intelligence publicly links the airport attack to Iranian support, sharply raising the chance of state-level confrontation. Tehran rejects the accusation, but both sides increase military readiness and the US expands air-defense support in the Gulf.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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