Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
45% Chance
Saudi Arabia and Iran use the foreign-minister call to prevent the Houthi strike on Riyadh airport from becoming a direct bilateral crisis. Tehran denies operational control over the Houthis, while Riyadh keeps retaliation focused on air defenses and diplomatic pressure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.6%
- Energy -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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