Possible scenario
Contained Proxy Escalation
30% Chance
The foreign-minister call fails to produce a visible Houthi stand-down, and Saudi Arabia retaliates against launch sites in Yemen. Iran avoids direct involvement but continues political backing for the Houthis, keeping the crisis below the Saudi-Iran state-to-state threshold.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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