Possible scenario
GOP Triage Works
42% Chance
The most likely outcome is that Senate Leadership Fund correctly identifies South Carolina as the more urgent defensive race while Georgia is effectively written off. Jon Ossoff remains heavily favored in Georgia, but Darline Graham benefits from the additional Republican spending and holds Lindsey Graham’s former seat.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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