Possible scenario
Democrats Break Through
28% Chance
The SLF diversion proves too late to stop Democratic momentum in South Carolina. A Democratic win in Lindsey Graham’s former seat, combined with Ossoff’s likely Georgia victory, would signal a serious Republican failure in the Southeast and improve Democratic odds of Senate control.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
- Healthcare -0.1%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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