Possible scenario
Repeated Spillover
20% Chance
Russian strikes near Ukrainian ports and logistics routes continue to produce stray drones or fragments over Moldova. The scenario remains below a direct attack on Moldova, but the frequency of incidents increases regional risk premiums.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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