Possible scenario
Decline Stalls
25% Chance
The recent drop may pause if gasoline inventories remain tighter than expected or refinery output does not normalize quickly enough. In this scenario, pump prices flatten near current levels instead of extending the decline.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Tickers
- MPC+0.7%
- +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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