Possible scenario
UK Security Crackdown
40% Chance
British authorities treat the case as part of a continuing Iranian use of criminal proxies against dissidents and journalists. The most likely path is tighter policing, more prosecutions, and additional protective measures for Persian-language media in London without a major diplomatic rupture.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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