Possible scenario
Diplomatic Retaliation
25% Chance
London responds by publicly attributing the plot to Iranian state-linked operatives and escalating pressure on Tehran. Measures could include sanctions, expulsions, and renewed debate over proscribing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.2%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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