Possible scenario
Transit Sanctions Escalate
18% Chance
The dispute shifts from direct military threats to trade, rail and port restrictions affecting Kaliningrad access. Brussels tries to keep measures legally narrow, but Moscow retaliates with its own administrative and energy-linked pressure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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