Possible scenario
Threat Stays Rhetorical
38% Chance
Putin's warning functions mainly as nuclear signaling intended to deter any NATO move around Kaliningrad. Moscow, Washington, Berlin and Vilnius avoid operational steps that would make a clash more likely, while military alert levels remain elevated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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