Possible scenario
Talks Stall, Violence Low
28% Chance
The mediation process continues but fails to bridge Riyadh's demand for territorial returns and Houthi demands for economic concessions. Both sides avoid major escalation because Oman, China and Russia keep diplomatic pressure on the parties.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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