Possible scenario
Negotiated Ceasefire Advances
42% Chance
Omani channels, backed by Russian and Chinese pressure on Tehran and the Houthis, produce a workable de-escalation framework. Saudi Arabia keeps insisting on some border and territorial guarantees, but the parties find language that allows talks to continue without requiring an immediate final settlement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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