Possible scenario
Ceasefire Talks Collapse
20% Chance
The mediation effort fails because the Houthis reject Saudi demands for territorial returns and Riyadh refuses a ceasefire without enforceable concessions. This reopens the path to Red Sea attacks, Saudi border strikes, or renewed Western military action.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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