Possible scenario
Shipping Disruption Widens
27% Chance
The drone fire causes insurers, tanker owners, and charterers to pause transits even if Iran does not announce a total closure. The result is a de facto tightening of Gulf oil flows, higher freight rates, and a larger but still contained cross-asset risk reaction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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