Possible scenario
Military Retaliation Follows
23% Chance
Washington or a Gulf partner responds militarily if the vessel is seriously damaged, American-linked, or carrying a protected cargo. Both sides try to keep the confrontation below outright war, but the immediate market response prices a meaningful risk of further strikes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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