Possible scenario
Controlled Enforcement Holds
38% Chance
Iran treats the drone fire as enforcement of its new Hormuz transit rules rather than the start of a broader campaign. The ship is detained or escorted, but Tehran avoids mass casualties and leaves room for Oman, Qatar, and China to negotiate limited passage.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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