Possible scenario
Managed Starlink Approval
42% Chance
India's Department of Telecommunications treats Reliance's denial as enough to lower the political temperature and proceeds with a conditional Starlink authorization. The most likely outcome is approval with security, lawful-intercept, gateway, and pricing safeguards rather than an unrestricted launch.
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications +0.6%
- Technology +0.2%
Tickers
- SPCX+3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.