Possible scenario
Talks Stall Again
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is another inconclusive round in which Putin receives the updated plan but Russia refuses to dilute its core demands on territory, neutrality, and sanctions relief. Lavrov’s public rejection of concessions signals that Moscow is preserving negotiating leverage rather than preparing a compromise.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Technology -0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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