Possible scenario
Russian Hardline Escalates
20% Chance
Russia may use the meeting to demonstrate that Washington has heard its position, then double down militarily when the plan falls short of Moscow’s demands. This would be consistent with Putin’s earlier message that Russia will achieve its aims through negotiation or war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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