Possible scenario
Limited Ceasefire Path
25% Chance
A partial diplomatic opening emerges if Putin decides the Trump channel can secure limits on Ukrainian rearmament or future NATO ties. Russia would likely avoid calling this a concession, instead framing it as a conditional pause to test Kyiv and Washington.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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