Possible scenario
Air Defense Response
25% Chance
Kyiv uses the Kharkiv apartment attack to press the United States, Germany and other NATO members for additional interceptors and launchers. The near-term market effect is modest and concentrated in defense names, because the war itself is not new to investors.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
- +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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