Possible scenario
Digital Adoption Succeeds
40% Chance
The IRS mobile app becomes a widely used front door for refund tracking, tax payments, notices, and Direct File access. This is the most likely path because it follows the agency's 2022-2026 modernization arc and builds on Direct File expansion rather than replacing the tax ecosystem overnight.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.2%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- HRB-2.6%
- INTU-1.8%
- ACIW+1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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