Possible scenario
Deal Delayed Legally
21% Chance
The merger process continues but becomes mired in litigation, disclosure review, or national-security questions tied to SpaceX’s government contracts. This is a realistic risk because Musk’s 56% voting power gives plaintiffs and regulators a concrete governance issue to challenge.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Tickers
- SPCX-5.1%
- TSLA-3.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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